While a growing number of business owners continue nearing exit, the market remains unprepared for them. According to the 2026 UBS Global Entrepreneur Report released earlier this month, “[n]early a third (32%) of global entrepreneurs are actively considering exiting their businesses within the next five years.” This number spikes for those aged 65 to over 57% with American entrepreneurs leading this monetization stampede, with a staggering 63% planning an exit, significantly outpacing their peers in Europe (38%) and Asia-Pacific (18%). A few weeks earlier, McKinsey released its own report, The Great Ownership Transfer, also beating that same drum: “By 2035, about six million small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) will face ownership transitions.”
These figures are not just backroom projections from high-brow consultants – they reflect an obvious structural reality driven by demographics. Ownership of small and mid-sized businesses is heavily concentrated among aging founders, and this concentration is now unwinding itself. Taken together, these dynamics point to a fundamental imbalance. A large and increasing supply of businesses will be seeking buyers at the same time, yet the infrastructure required to absorb that supply remains uneven.
It is no surprise that McKinsey observes that closure – not continuity – has become the de facto dominant exit path:
Yet the systems for transferring business ownership in the United States are fragmented and under- developed. Today, most exits end in closure rather than transfer, not because the businesses lack value, but because pathways to succession are limited, opaque, or costly. Moreover, starting a business can be more straightforward than acquiring one. The result is a consequential lost opportunity: Firms shut down, jobs disappear, and hard-won mobility gains dissipate—not through disruption, but through inaction.
The implications are particularly acute in the service sector. As the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explains in its analysis of the services economy, services now account for the majority of both U.S. GDP and employment. More specifically, at the end of 2025, the services sector accounted for 72% of U.S. employment. This includes healthcare providers, contractors, professional services firms, and hospitality businesses – categories where many small and mid-sized enterprises operate. Interestingly, the BizBuySell Insight Report points out that the service sector had the strongest business sales growth in 2025, “with transaction volume up 4% over the past year and the median sale price rising 5% to $340,000 and service business values also held strong, with the average cash flow multiple increasing by 2% to 2.52.”
Despite this upswing, service businesses share structural characteristics that complicate ownership transfer. They are frequently owner-dependent, relationship-driven, and operationally concentrated. As well, they also tend to fall below the thresholds that attract institutional capital. McKinsey describes many of these firms as occupying the “missing middle” – economically viable enterprises that nonetheless struggle to transfer due to fragmented buyer markets and limited financing pathways.
A more pressing issue, however, is not market structure. It is owner preparedness. As starkly revealed by McKinsey, “fewer than one in three small-business owners have a documented exit plan.” At the same time, the BizBuySell Insight Report indicates that a substantial portion of owner wealth – often the majority – is tied up in the business itself. This combination creates a clear asymmetry. Owners are economically dependent on a successful exit, yet many approach that exit without the structural readiness required to complete one.
For service businesses, the consequences become further amplified. When value depends on personal relationships, undocumented processes, or the continued involvement of the owner, the business becomes difficult to transfer. Buyers discount valuations based on that risk. Lenders hesitate to even finance it. As a result, transactions fail – not because the underlying business lacks value, but because it is not configured for continuity.
Proper packaging of an SMB’s intellectual property – whether it is a company’s method of doing business or its proprietary client lists, i.e., trade secrets, or the trademarks registered by lawyers long ago to distinguish it from other companies, becomes an essential requirement for a business sale.
This is where success becomes less about markets and more about owner behavior. An exit is often treated as an event – something that occurs at the end of a business lifecycle. It is, however, a process that should be embedded into the business well in advance of that exit. In addition to protecting and packaging relied-upon intellectual property, this ongoing process should reduce owner dependency, formalize operations, strengthen financial reporting, and identifying realistic buyer opportunities.
Not surprisingly, buyer pathways are also often misunderstood. For many service businesses, the most likely acquirers are not institutional investors but independent operators, key employees, or local strategic buyers. In that context, alternative transition structures – employee ownership plans, phased buyouts, or internal succession – may be more viable than a traditional sales process.
The broader societal implications of correcting these imbalances extend well beyond individual transactions. Effective ownership transitions have the potential to preserve employment, maintain local economic continuity, and retain enterprise value within communities. Conversely, failed transitions result not only in lost business opportunities but in the erosion of economic infrastructure that is difficult to rebuild.
The emerging picture, then, is not just of a weak market, but of a mismatched system. Supply and demand may exist but they are unevenly distributed and often inaccessible. The overall limiting factor becomes not opportunity, but coordination – and, at the level of the individual business, this lack of preparation will continue as an owner’s Achilles Heel until awareness and proper resources supplant this widespread failure.